Kanban Estimation: Is it Possible?

Do you need help meeting project deadlines or dealing with an erratic workflow in Kanban? Then, Kanban Estimation is the solution. Kanban Estimation is crucial for enhancing productivity and Project Management. By making precise task estimations in Kanban, you can streamline processes, establish practical expectations, and enhance team productivity. This blog will walk you through the fundamental concepts of Kanban Estimation, providing hands-on methods to improve your task organisation.  

Gain knowledge on how to split up tasks, prioritise efficiently, and utilise Kanban Estimation to remain competitive in your industry. Read further to discover how these insights can assist you in meeting deadlines with assurance, enhancing your productivity to higher levels! 

Table of Contents 

1) What is Kanban? 

2) What is an Estimate in Kanban? 

3) How to use estimation in Kanban 

4) How to Embrace Forecasting with Kanban? 

5) How not to estimate in Kanban 

6) Estimating vs. Forecasting 

7) Conclusion  

What is Kanban? 

Kanban aids teams in handling their work by visualising tasks on a board, serving as a visual management tool. It emphasises on constantly delivering work without overwhelming team members. The board is divided into columns that represent the different stages of work in the system.  

Tasks moves through various phases, starting from "To Do" and ending at "Done," allowing teams to track their advances visually. Kanban concentrates on ensuring smooth flow, limiting the amount of Work in Progress (WIP) to improve efficiency and maximise throughput. This visual method helps teams in pinpointing bottlenecks, improving processes, and preserving a steady work pace.
 

What is an Estimate in Kanban? 

In Kanban, an estimation is a forecast of the time a task could need to be finished, typically relying on past information. In contrast to Scrum, which heavily relies on estimations for planning, Kanban is more flexible. In Kanban, the emphasis is on grasping the flow and forecasting future performance when making estimations. They don't focus on establishing deadlines, but on improving the predictability of the process.  

The objective is to utilise estimation for enhanced flow control and process enhancement instead of rigid time limits. 

How to use Estimation in Kanban? 

Utilising estimation in Kanban requires a change in attitude from conventional time or point-based estimations. Below are a few actionable measures: 

a) Utilise Historical Data: Analyse previous performance data to determine the time it took to complete similar tasks. This aids in establishing attainable goals without relying on speculation. 

b) Emphasise Flow Metrics: Metrics such as cycle time (duration to finish a task) and lead time (time from task beginning to end) are crucial. These metrics offer understanding of how tasks move through the system. 

c) Utilise Class of Service: Categorise tasks according to their level of urgency and significance. This assists in organising tasks without thorough estimation, keeping productivity steady and minimising setbacks. 

d) Restricting Work in Progress (WIP): Setting limits on WIP ensures a steady flow and minimises the necessity for intricate estimations. The emphasis is on completing existing tasks before moving on to new ones. 

e) Employ Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs): CFDs display the progression of tasks, illustrating both ongoing and finished tasks throughout time. They assist in recognising patterns and predicting future accomplishments. 

How to Embrace Forecasting with Kanban? 

Predicting future results in Kanban involves using current and past data to anticipate what will happen. Here is the proper way to adopt forecasting efficiently: 

a) Use Little’s Law: Little's Law explains that the average quantity of objects in a system equals the arrival rate times the average duration of each object's stay within the system. In Kanban, this can help predict the duration of tasks using average cycle times. 

b) Cumulative Flow Diagram Projections: Projections can be made using Cumulative Flow Diagrams to predict future tasks. By studying patterns in the chart, teams can anticipate the potential completion dates of forthcoming tasks. 

c) Probabilistic Forecasting: This method involves using data to anticipate probable results instead of specific dates. It recognises that task completion times can vary, offering a range of potential results. 

d) Service Level Expectations (SLEs): Service Level Expectations (SLEs) show the anticipated duration for finishing tasks in a specific category. These procedures are not strict deadlines but tools to align stakeholder expectations. 

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How not to Estimate in Kanban? 

Although estimation is valuable in Kanban, it is important to steer clear of typical mistakes. Here are the things you should avoid doing: 

Avoid Overly Detailed Estimates: Kanban values flow over detailed initial planning. Exaggerating the importance of each task can impede progress and cause a shift in attention from execution to organisation. 

Do Not Use Story Points: Story points are better fitting for Scrum, where velocity is compared to estimations. Kanban works without time limits, making story points unimportant. 

Avoid Commitment-Based Estimates: Refrain from making commitment-based estimates in Kanban as they should not be considered as promises. These are forecasts, not assurances, and should be regarded as such. 

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Estimating vs Forecasting 

In Kanban, estimation and prediction serve distinct functions. Estimation consists of forecasting the duration of specific tasks, usually by considering past data. Forecasting, on the flip side, considers the broader scope by forecasting general results derived from current flow metrics. Although estimates offer immediate insights, forecasting allows teams to prepare for the future. Both are important, but they should be used in line with Kanban's focus on flow and constant delivery. 

Conclusion 

With your newfound understanding of Kanban Estimation, you're now well-equipped to enhance your workflow and optimise decision-making in Project Management. By integrating these estimation techniques, you can better visualise tasks, prioritise effectively, and ensure your team remains aligned with overall objectives. Stay committed to applying these strategies, and watch as your passion for efficiency turns into tangible success. 

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