Delphi Technique & Its Role in Project Management

According to a study, 71% of projects achieve their initial goals and business intent when Project Management culture is given a significantly high priority. And research shows, that just over half of organisations properly comprehend the importance of Project Management and less than two in five firms prioritise fostering a culture that recognises project management's worth as a factor in improved project performance. 

It is crucial for a project manager to consider how potential upcoming events can affect their initiatives. Understanding these events, whether they be good or bad, enables you to get ready and decide for how to handle them. However, how can you make any kind of accurate future predictions? That is where the Delphi Technique comes to picture!  

Also, in recent decades, there has been an increase in the number of publications using the Delphi Technique across a variety of disciplines including project management. Aggregate expert opinions and evaluations are anticipated to become even more important given the rising amount of uncertainty brought on by rapid technological and societal development on a global scale.  

Consequently, this article discusses the importance of the Delphi Technique and how it functions in project management.

Table of Contents

1) So, What is the Delphi Technique?  

2) A Brief History   

3) Elements of Delphi Technique 

4) Understanding the Delphi Technique Process 

   a) Identify the Issue and Establish the Purpose of the Study 

   b) Preparing Structure of the Study 

   c) Determine a group of Experts and Facilitators 

   d) Construct the Questionnaires 

   e) Examine the Feedback and Results Thoroughly 

5) Now, Let’s Understand when is Delphi Method Used?  

6) Role of Delphi Technique in Project Management 

7) Advantages & Disadvantages of Adopting the Delphi Technique in Project Management 

8) Advantages 

9) Disadvantages

10) Practical Applications 

11) Examples

12) Conclusion

So, What is the Delphi Technique? 

The Delphi Method, commonly known as the estimate-talk-estimate approach (ETE) is a structured and empirical way to anticipate a framework by gathering expert opinions through multiple rounds of questionnaires.  

The Delphi Technique depends on subject-matter experts to foresee outcomes of hypothetical future scenarios, estimate the likelihood of an event, or reach consensus on a specific subject. The advantages of expert analysis and components of the wisdom of crowds are combined in this approach, which summarises the material acquired into a report that is easily comprehensible.  

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A Brief History

The Delphi Technique was developed by Noman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer and was first made available in the year 1950. The Rand Corporation’s founding members were a part of it. The name "Delphi" comes from the Greek language, for "Oracle of Delphi." It basically facilitates reaching a consensus on a common resolution which is considered as an in-depth, exploratory process. It also entails gathering organised and streamlined information and can take place anywhere in the world.  

The experts can give their opinions freely and the procedure still remains synonymous. The Delphi Method was initially used during the Cold War to predict how technology might affect conflict.  

Let’s Talk about the Elements of Delphi Technique

 4 substantial Elements of Delphi Technique are- 

1) Organised team- Every member is aware of how they are expected to participate, voice their opinions, offer criticism, and reach a consensus. In comparison to unstructured groups, which are to blame for individual predispositions, proponents of this organised methodology claim it is more effective at arriving at a true estimation of hypotheses. 

2) Anonymity- Every individual is kept unknown, which enables people to express their opinions and condemn others without worrying about their personal or professional relationships. 

3) The facilitator- This person has a neutral position within the organisation and is tasked with organising the surveys, categorising the collected data, and compiling the prior hypotheses. 

4) Broad reach- The Delphi Technique is particularly useful when working with multiple partners or in situations where people are separated by distance and/or time zones. It enables the management and distribution of all data from a single crucial point of convergence. 

A typical use of this method in Project Management would involve having a group of experts respond to a survey that elicited their opinions on problems related to the project. The facilitator then compiles these responses into a synopsis and rearranges it for the participants to add additional comments. The least popular suggestions are eliminated at the end of each round, causing the group to dynamically come to consensus on the preferred figure or strategy.

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Understanding the Delphi Technique Process

For a company, the Delphi Technique can be a useful source of ideas, evaluations, and conclusions. To recruit a strong group of panellists and ask them the correct questions, one should do some research in advance. Following are the steps to effectively complete the Delphi technique:

1) Identify the issue and establish the purpose of the study- It is crucial to specify the problem an individual is attempting to resolve and be aware of the forecast. Also, it is essential to decide what the study needs to achieve before starting to conduct it. This can assist in better planning of the duration and number of cycles of the study. 

2) Preparing structure of the study- It should be simpler to establish the study's broad framework once the aim is clear. The number of rounds, the duration, and the materials to be distributed to participants can now be decided. 

   a) Materials that can be included

   b) Ethical rules of procedure

   c) The study's objective

   d) Guidelines on how to perform the study precisely

   e) Timeline and schedule of the study

   f) Consent forms

3) Determine a group of experts and facilitators- The choice of experts and facilitators should be made while creating the overall structure. The experts may be individuals either external or internal to the company. The facilitator should be impartial and have previous expertise in conducting research and collecting data. 

Depending on elements like the study's duration and complexity, adjust the number of panellists you invite. The ideal number of panellists to use is often between 10 and 50. 

4) Construct the questionnaires- Every round should be accompanied by a new questionnaire. The study will typically involve the following rounds: 

a) Round one- The first questionnaire is presented to the experts by the facilitator. Typically, questions in the first round are open-ended to enable experts to come up with further ideas. The facilitator compiles all the questionnaire responses and provides the experts with a brief report on the results. The experts' identities are concealed in the overview to enable them to express their ideas without restraint.  

b) Round two- During this round, the facilitator will carefully go over each response and look for patterns or themes that run throughout them all. After reviewing the anonymous comments, the panellists will be given pertinent information from these responses. Following that, the panellists are given the chance to revise their initial responses in light of what they just read, which they will then present to the facilitators. 

c) Round three- The facilitator will analyse these responses once more to look for any patterns and common themes after everyone has given revised or new answers. They will then create fresh, revised questions considering the responses from the previous round for users to review and offer additional input on. One always has the option of stopping the study after this round or continuing to modify the responses in accordance with the panellists' feedback until you establish a broad consensus. 

5) Examine the feedback and results thoroughly- Evaluate the findings with the rest of the team after the panellists have been dismissed before deciding whether or not to implement the panellists' choice. To assure all the details or data elements are calculated correctly, one can also ask the facilitator to thoroughly review the results once again. 

Once all the details are worked out, start putting the results into practice by delivering them to other team members or decision-makers, creating a consensus report, illuminating your findings in an industry piece, or starting a new project. 

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Now, let’s understand when is Delphi Technique Used? 

A) The Delphi Technique is used to forecast and do research on issues with unknown solutions. This is utilized when a problem statement lacks a definitive solution and calls for subjective judgement. One subject matter specialist is not necessary for the Delphi technique. Instead, it considers the views of several subject-matter experts. 

B) The Delphi Method is an effective option for forecasting when the confidentiality of subject matter experts is required on complex topics or subjects such as political significance. When a large sample size is required and face-to-face interactions make it difficult to derive subjective conclusions about the selected issue, this method is used. 

Role of Delphi Technique in Project Management 

The group of experts receives a few rounds of questionnaires, after each of which, the mysterious responses are gathered and shared with the group. The experts are free to adapt their replies as necessary based on how they perceive the group reaction that has been provided to them. Since multiple rounds of questions are given, and management assesses the group's overall thinking processes, the Delphi Technique seeks to reach the correct response by agreement and outlining the constantly developing role of Project Management in numerous industries.  

A few benefits of the Delphi Technique for Project Management are as follows-  

1) Giving voice to everyone- The Delphi technique, with its written response and anonymized style, enables everybody to express their opinions clearly without worrying that they will have to communicate in front of a group of people or that they will be disregarded because of personal prejudices. 

2) Simpler to get team leads together- No matter how far apart the decision-makers are, thorough and effective discussions can be achieved by using the facilitation, response, and reiteration steps of the Delphi technique. 

3) Increases unity- By using the Delphi Technique, a greater range of viewpoints may be collected than could be possible in a meeting or one-on-one, which helps participants buy in and communicates the significance focused on their expertise. 

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Advantages & Disadvantages of Adopting the Delphi Technique in Project Management   

Advantages: 

The Delphi Technique can help you get stakeholders and work groups on the same page, which is a requirement for successful projects. The Delphi Technique has the following benefits: 

1) There is potential for rapid consensus- Have you ever wanted to make a decision quickly during a project meeting but were unable to sway everyone in the room? To every one of us, it occurs. Depending on the situation at hand, the Delphi Technique can assist you in reaching consensus fast. 

2) It promotes individual ideas- It can be difficult to express one's thoughts, especially in a professional atmosphere, especially if there are a few speakers who dominate the conversation. The fact that anonymous responses enable everyone to freely express and share their thoughts is a significant benefit of this approach. 

3) Conducting it is quick and cost-effective- The Delphi Technique is reasonably simple and reasonably priced to apply. To get results, you don't need a lot of expensive equipment or sophisticated materials; all you need is some time and a way to jot down and organise ideas.

Disadvantages:

1) It takes a lot of time because the facilitator needs to run numerous rounds of interviews to get a consensus.

2) As the number of repeated rounds increases, the procedure may become more complicated.

3) It is essential that the problem statement be explicit and precisely stated.

4) The facilitator might or might not have seen any biases in the data that was gathered and compiled, which may have some skewed estimates from the specialists themselves.

5) There is a good risk that the dynamics of the group will be used to coerce an inaccurate answer.

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Practical Applications

In the outset, scientists and technologists employed the Delphi Technique to predict trends and outcomes. For instance, it has been applied to forecast trends in the aerospace, robotics, broadband, and usage of technology in educational settings. 

It has also been used to predict results in the fields of public policy, healthcare, academia, and the economy. It is especially helpful in professional settings, assisting with sales forecasting with 96%-97% accuracy in comparison to actual sales figures. The success of business events can therefore be predicted using the Delphi Method.

Examples

The Delphi Method is widely used to resolve important business initiatives and delicate political challenges. The project manager must assess the likelihood of certain occurrences and consider how they might impact the projects in order for high-impact initiatives to succeed. The Delphi Technique is extremely helpful in this situation for figuring out the opportunities and challenges associated with a project. 

Similar to how it produces comprehensive solutions, this approach is crucial in creating public policy.

Conclusion

Having learnt everything there is to know about the Delphi technique, never forget to make sure you incorporate all its crucial elements for a successful result. The Knowledge Academy offers several Project Management certification courses that will assist you in becoming better at Delphi!